WASHINGTON, Sept. 13 ・Congressional Democrats are often blindsided by their party's presidential nominating process; three of the last five Democratic nominees were governors who, at least initially, were largely unknown on Capitol Hill. As Representative John P. Murtha, the western Pennsylvania Democrat now in his 29th year in Congress, put it, "I've never been right in a primary yet."
In recent days lawmakers have been buzzing as they try to figure out the surge of another little-known governor, Howard Dean of Vermont. Who is he? How does he get those crowds? And, one of the crucial questions for lawmakers who must run next year, would Dr. Dean, who was governor for 12 years, help or hurt them at the top of the ticket? Even some of the most senior lawmakers say they do not know the man.
A colleague of Representative Jim McDermott, the liberal Washington Democrat, summed up the bewilderment among lawmakers recently when he asked Mr. McDermott: "What do you think, Jim? Is this guy McGovern or Carter?" Mr. McDermott, who said he was "definitely attracted" to Dr. Dean, said he thought he was a Carter.
Other lawmakers clearly have worries about Dr. Dean's electability if he wins the nomination. "What we ought to be looking for is a candidate who can win in November," said Senator John B. Breaux, the Louisiana Democrat and longtime leader in the Democratic Leadership Council, which is committed to pushing the party to the center.
Dr. Dean's comments last week on the Middle East, in which he suggested that "it's not our place to take sides" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, prompted a letter of rebuke this week signed by 34 House Democrats. "This is not a time to be sending mixed messages," the letter said. Dean campaign officials, asserting that the comments had been misinterpreted, were quick to note that some of the signers were committed to other candidates.
There is, one Democratic Senate strategist said, a trace of longing for the more disciplined process followed by the Republicans in the run-up to the 2000 election, when much of the Republican establishment, on Capitol Hill and beyond, coalesced early behind George W. Bush, then governor of Texas.
That support held even after Mr. Bush distanced himself from Congressional Republicans, sharply criticizing some of their budget proposals and antigovernment philosophy as he sought to present himself as a more "compassionate" Republican. Despite those disputes, by October 1999, 160 of the 222 House Republicans had endorsed Mr. Bush, the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call reported at the time.
Given the Democrats' love of nominating politics driven by the grass roots, the size of the field and the lack of a consensus on a front-runner, nobody expects a replay of that strategy any time soon. But Congressional Democrats are still consumed with finding the strongest nominee to capitalize on what they see as Mr. Bush's increasing vulnerabilities. "People are looking for a winner," the Senate strategist said, "and it's not clear whether Dean is a Babbitt/McCain/Tsongas phenomenon or if he can truly take hold all over the country."
Many Democratic lawmakers are only beginning to focus on the race for the nomination and say they plan to stay unaligned until it is more fully developed. Of the nine candidates, four are members of the Senate and two are members of the House, and thus far better known on Capitol Hill. The sheer number of candidates from the Senate has frozen many of their colleagues in place.
Richard A. Gephardt, the Missouri Democrat and longtime minority leader in the House, is by far the leader in Congressional endorsements, with 31. But Mr. Gephardt has been eclipsed by Dr. Dean in both fund-raising and recent polls in important states; his supporters recently sought to reassure his base in the House with a memo outlining "Why Dick Gephardt will be the Democratic nominee."
Mr. Gephardt and his top strategists also met with many of those Congressional supporters this week. Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, who has endorsements from 15 members of the House, held a similar meeting.
Dr. Dean has the backing of seven members of the House, his campaign said.
From a candidate's standpoint, such endorsements are important for several reasons. Democratic lawmakers are automatically delegates to the national convention, they often provide good entree to the voters in their districts, and they can also help with fund-raising.
Many Democratic lawmakers are clearly impressed by Dr. Dean's surge in August ・his fund-raising, his use of the Internet, his crowds. Mr. Murtha, who supports Mr. Gephardt, said, "I'll tell you what: this guy's doing something right to get those kinds of crowds." Representative Charles W. Stenholm of Texas, a leader of the conservative Blue Dog Democrats who met with Dr. Dean this summer, said, "You have to give Howard credit for running, thus far, one heck of a campaign."
They are also drawing broader political lessons from his rise. Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois, said Dr. Dean was highlighting what he and other Democrats had long believed. "There's a Democratic electorate out there that is hungry," Mr. Emanuel said.
Very few lawmakers are dismissive, given the history; governors have had a lot of success in capturing the Democratic nomination, although their record in the general election is mixed. (Jimmy Carter of Georgia won the nomination in 1976, Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts in 1988 and Bill Clinton of Arkansas in 1992.)
In the end, a Democratic strategist said, House members adjust to reality. "They look at these things clinically and objectively," the strategist said. "If someone's doing well in money, doing well in crowds, doing well in polls, they're not going to go out there and explain why that's bad for them."